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textualdevianceSo, all this hard work we've been pouring into the house, and it may not really have been worth it, because our listing agent (without having seen it yet, fwiw) thinks we should list it for about 20k less than I'd estimated.
My estimate, fwiw, was based on looking at two things: Average price per square foot in our zip code, and how far off of their 2008 tax assessed value recent sales were.
The reason I looked at it this way, instead of doing the straight-ahead comps that appraisers would usually do, is because there really aren't any recent sales in our theoretical price range. There are a whole bunch of things on the lower end, but those are for smaller houses, on smaller lots, tight in to their neighbors and without many of our features. There are also a lot of sales on the higher end, but most of those are near the country club up the hill.
There just really aren't any recent sales for houses that fit our profile. Which is not to say that we're the most expensive house on the block or anything. There are actually an awful lot of houses with our feature set within half a mile. They just haven't sold within the last few months, which is the only way to get a reasonable valuation if you're working from comps.
FWIW, the agent was confused, too, and was having a hard time figuring out what our price really should be. She's going to call some agents for some of the other houses around and ask them some questions, and also come see the place this weekend sometime. So she may well understand where I was coming from with the number I came up with after that. I dunno.
The key problem, unfortunately, is going to be a matter of buyer pool. It may be that the reason there are so many sales on the lower end is because people looking to buy in our zip just don't want to pay more than that unless they're high-end buyers looking for walking distance to the golf course. It may be hard for us to find buyers who are willing to pay more for the features we have that are much better than the cheaper stuff, or, conversely, buyers who are willing to sacrifice location for a much better price for the same kind of features.
Or, who knows? We could get lucky and end up getting even more offers because we're straddling both buyer pools, and because there would be next to no competition for our exact feature set/price range except a couple of trashed pre-foreclosures that have been on the market for a year.
Unless we end up getting offers that are drastically less than what she wants to list it at, we should be able to just offload the thing anyway, though. It certainly will limit what we're able to buy--$20k may as well be a fortune when you're talking about trying to get to 20% down--but we won't be completely out of things. I hope.
The worst-case scenario is that we list it for the low price, get nothing but even lower offers for the next 30 days, and then decide to delist it and rent the thing out instead. If we have to stay in the villa longer than the Octoberish we had originally planned, we'll manage. (And honestly, I'd rather be here than the house at this point, because the commute's much better and I don't want to move again unless we're buying.)
But I really, really hope that's not the case. I hope that we find that sweet spot price and get multiple offers on it and are able to go get what we really want soon.
My estimate, fwiw, was based on looking at two things: Average price per square foot in our zip code, and how far off of their 2008 tax assessed value recent sales were.
The reason I looked at it this way, instead of doing the straight-ahead comps that appraisers would usually do, is because there really aren't any recent sales in our theoretical price range. There are a whole bunch of things on the lower end, but those are for smaller houses, on smaller lots, tight in to their neighbors and without many of our features. There are also a lot of sales on the higher end, but most of those are near the country club up the hill.
There just really aren't any recent sales for houses that fit our profile. Which is not to say that we're the most expensive house on the block or anything. There are actually an awful lot of houses with our feature set within half a mile. They just haven't sold within the last few months, which is the only way to get a reasonable valuation if you're working from comps.
FWIW, the agent was confused, too, and was having a hard time figuring out what our price really should be. She's going to call some agents for some of the other houses around and ask them some questions, and also come see the place this weekend sometime. So she may well understand where I was coming from with the number I came up with after that. I dunno.
The key problem, unfortunately, is going to be a matter of buyer pool. It may be that the reason there are so many sales on the lower end is because people looking to buy in our zip just don't want to pay more than that unless they're high-end buyers looking for walking distance to the golf course. It may be hard for us to find buyers who are willing to pay more for the features we have that are much better than the cheaper stuff, or, conversely, buyers who are willing to sacrifice location for a much better price for the same kind of features.
Or, who knows? We could get lucky and end up getting even more offers because we're straddling both buyer pools, and because there would be next to no competition for our exact feature set/price range except a couple of trashed pre-foreclosures that have been on the market for a year.
Unless we end up getting offers that are drastically less than what she wants to list it at, we should be able to just offload the thing anyway, though. It certainly will limit what we're able to buy--$20k may as well be a fortune when you're talking about trying to get to 20% down--but we won't be completely out of things. I hope.
The worst-case scenario is that we list it for the low price, get nothing but even lower offers for the next 30 days, and then decide to delist it and rent the thing out instead. If we have to stay in the villa longer than the Octoberish we had originally planned, we'll manage. (And honestly, I'd rather be here than the house at this point, because the commute's much better and I don't want to move again unless we're buying.)
But I really, really hope that's not the case. I hope that we find that sweet spot price and get multiple offers on it and are able to go get what we really want soon.
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Re: moving